I’ve always been entertained by what I know as Fiedler’s Rules of Forecasting. They’ve been attributed to a range of people from Winston Churchill to Cecil B DeMille and I’m sure we’ll never know who actually came up with them. They contain such pearls of wisdom as “When forecasting, give them a number or give them a date, but never both!” “When you forecast you know you’re going to be wrong, you just don’t know when and in which direction!” But my particular favourite is “Forecasting is very difficult – especially about the future!”
I was reminded of this particular rule when recently I was asked to give my considered view about what may happen to world trade in ten years’ time. My friends may tell you that if I could even give an idea of what might happen in ten minutes’ time it would be a miracle but I put aside my initial scepticism and gave it some thought.
The first thing to consider is population. In ten years’ time our present 7 billion people will have grown to 8 billion. A daunting thought, but we also expect there to be a rise of 750 million in the ranks of the spending middle classes. The overwhelming majority of these will be in Asia and Africa, but they will certainly be in the fastest growing markets of the world. Seven of the world’s ten fastest growing economies at the moment are in Africa. I predict that in ten years’ time all ten will be in Africa. We currently export around 50% of our total exports to the EU. Given the development of high growth markets outside the developed world, I believe that if that figure is not around 30% in ten years’ time we as a nation will be in trouble. Not because I want to see our exports to the EU shrink – far from it. No, it’s because I want to see our exports to the rest of the world’s growing economies rise to the extent that our proportion of exports to the EU shrinks. One thing is for sure. If we are still exporting 50% to the EU in ten years time, we will have failed as a nation.
High growth markets exist on all continents. The nearest is probably Turkey, barely a four hour flight away. UKTI is focusing attention on countries such as Colombia, Indonesia, Egypt, Ghana and a host of others. It’s not just about the BRICs, even though these remain extremely important in planning your international growth strategies. To shine a light on the opportunities that exist in High Growth Markets we’re holding Export Week, a week of special events from 13 to 17 May. Each region has its own programme but in theNorth West I will be starting inLiverpool on the Monday where Lord Green will be joining us to kick start the week’s activities. I will finish in Salford on Friday afternoon but I will have been via Barrow-in Furness, Cleator Moor, Preston, Runcorn, Rochdale and Manchester.
I’m really excited about the events we’re running. You’ll be able to find out about the opportunities in the Middle East, Emerging Europe, Central and Latin America (I’ll be joined by six British Ambassadors to various Central and Latin American countries for a great day on Friday at the Etihad Stadium in Manchester), Africa and how UKTI can help you to succeed in those markets. Please try to get along to one of the many events that is near to you as I guarantee you’ll find something worthwhile at each one.
I hope that another of Fiedler’s Rules of Forecasting does not come back to bite me: “He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass” but, given the strength of the high growth markets of the world my only fear is that I may actually be underestimating their importance to world trade in ten years’ time.